The IEA Says Oil Markets Are in Surplus After a Jump in Russian Crude Output

Russia's crude oil production rose to 8.73 million barrels a day in October, a 210,000-barrel-a-day surge, as a rebound in Gulf shipments pushes oil markets into a surplus for the first time since the Middle East conflict began, the International Energy Agency said Friday, CNBC reported.

Global supply and stocks have both swelled, though Middle East disruptions and attacks on Russian energy infrastructure tightened diesel supply, according to the agency's latest monthly oil market report. "Persistent attacks on Russian energy infrastructure continue to choke off the country's diesel supplies to international markets, adding to losses from the Middle East," the IEA noted.

President Donald Trump struck a deal with President Vladimir Putin to supply diesel to global markets on Oct. 9. The Treasury Department's Office of Foreign Assets Control issued a general license authorizing certain transactions involving Russian-origin diesel through April 7, 2027, CNBC reported. Crude supply can rise even as diesel remains tight, with refinery capacity and refined-product exports still constrained.

An 'extraordinary' rebound in global supply

Global oil supply reached 105.4 million barrels a day in October, up 2.3 million barrels a day from September, the IEA said, adding that supply rose by an "extraordinary" 5.3 million barrels a day since August, despite ongoing attacks on energy infrastructure and tankers. Inventories also rose for the first time since June, with observed global stocks increasing by 52 million barrels in October, or 1.7 million barrels a day.

"The oil market is showing tentative signs of rebalancing, with global oil supplies surpassing demand for the first time since the outbreak of the war in Iran," IEA analysts observed, according to CNBC.

The picture is split between fuels. Crude is more plentiful after the 210,000-barrel-a-day jump in Russian output, a rebound in Gulf shipments, and an increase of 2.3 million barrels a day in global supply from September to October. Diesel is still squeezed by attacks on Russian infrastructure and losses from the Middle East, even with a U.S. license that allows certain Russian diesel transactions through April 7, 2027. Inventories rose for the first time since June, by 52 million barrels in October. For drivers and refiners, that mix can mean a surplus in crude without a matching easing in diesel. The IEA called the supply increase since August, 5.3 million barrels a day, "extraordinary," even with ongoing attacks on energy infrastructure and tankers. Global supply reached 105.4 million barrels a day in October, and the agency described the rebalancing as tentative — but it is the first time since the Iran war began that supplies have surpassed demand.