More than a quarter of registered California voters are unsure whether they will fill out the 2030 Census, largely because of privacy concerns, according to a UC Berkeley Institute of Governmental Studies poll, the Los Angeles Times reported in an account published by The Mercury News.
The survey found that 72% of voters said their household is certain to complete the census. Of the 28% who expressed reluctance, 16% said they will "probably" fill it out, 5% put the chance at 50-50, 3% said they probably or certainly will not, and 4% were unsure. Pollsters told respondents that, by law, census responses are kept confidential.
"We're in a moment where there are a lot of reasons to be distrustful and a lot of concerns," said Eric Schickler, co-director of the IGS Poll. "But the census, people have been filling that out their whole adult lives, so to see this level of concern and then that spill over into willingness to respond was certainly bracing."
Younger voters and voters of color were more likely to hesitate. Only 46% of those under 30 said they would definitely fill out the census. About two-thirds of Black (68%) and Latino (65%) voters, and 63% of voters ages 30 to 39, said they would definitely participate. Just 57% of Asian American and Pacific Islander voters were certain they would. Half of voters were "very" or "somewhat confident" that their household's answers would be kept private, while 43% were "not too" or "not at all confident," and the rest were unsure.
"These findings are a warning, and we still have time to act. Doubt about confidentiality is an undercount in the making," said Ditas Katague, who directed California's 2020 Census outreach. "Protections are strong, but a law people don't trust protects no one. That infrastructure has to be built now, not in 2029."
The Trump administration has proposed new 2030 rules that would exclude many noncitizen residents from political apportionment and remove questions about race, ethnicity and sexual orientation, the Times reported. Schickler said debate over whether noncitizens are counted, and intensified immigration enforcement, "creates an atmosphere where a lot of people are concerned about how their responses would be treated," especially if they or family members are not citizens.
The once-a-decade count is used to apportion the 435 House seats and to steer federal money for schools, health care and transportation. With a stagnant population, California is expected to lose as many as four seats after 2030, according to the American Redistricting Project, while Texas and Florida could gain four and two. A 2020 Pew Research Center report, cited by the Times, said excluding people without permanent residency could further cut California's representation. The state already lost one seat after 2020.
The poll surveyed 2,787 registered voters in California from Oct. 19-25, online in English and Spanish, with a margin of error of about 2.5 percentage points. It was funded in part by the Los Angeles Times and the Evelyn and Walter Haas, Jr. Fund.