Democratic gains across the South in this year's midterms were driven as much by who showed up as by who stayed home, an NPR analysis of turnout data found.
Midterm elections usually draw fewer voters than presidential races. But from Louisiana to the Carolinas, counties that voted for former Vice President Kamala Harris in 2024 came closer to matching — and in some cases exceeded — presidential turnout, NPR reported. Counties won by President Trump saw a sharper decline and fewer Republican votes. In six Southern states — Louisiana, Mississippi, Alabama, Georgia, South Carolina and North Carolina — turnout dropped by 19% in Harris-won counties, compared with 26% in Trump-won counties. (In Louisiana, the units are parishes.)
Those six states swung an average of 22 points toward Democrats, larger than the national swing of about 14.5 points, NPR reported. The turnout gap was a key factor in Democrats flipping Senate seats in North Carolina, South Carolina and Mississippi, and it contributed to a closer-than-expected margin in Louisiana's Senate race.
In Mississippi, Democrat Scott Colom outperformed Harris, earning roughly 8,100 more votes than she did in 2024. His margin over incumbent Republican Sen. Cindy Hyde-Smith was just over 5,600 votes as final ballots were still being tallied, NPR reported. Democratic Senate nominees in the six states earned more raw votes than Harris in 170 counties, while Republican nominees garnered hundreds of thousands fewer votes than Trump.
Black voter participation was a central part of the story. NPR said voting data and polls from special elections and primaries leading into the midterms had already shown a surge in Black turnout, spurred in part by a Supreme Court decision, Louisiana v. Callais, that gutted part of the Voting Rights Act and led to new congressional maps in Tennessee, Alabama, Louisiana and North Carolina. After North Carolina redrew lines aimed at an 11-3 Republican majority, Democrats are now on track to hold an 11-3 majority in the state's U.S. House delegation, NPR reported.
Majority-Black counties overall had turnout of about 85%, compared with 76% in white, non-Hispanic majority counties, the analysis said. Sixteen majority-Black counties had even stronger showings in the figures NPR published with the story.
The findings do not mean every Southern Republican stayed home, or that every Harris county surged. They do show a consistent pattern: the drop-off from 2024 to 2026 was milder in Democratic-leaning Southern counties than in Trump-won ones, and that difference was large enough to help flip three Senate seats in a region that has long been difficult terrain for Democrats in midterm years.