Vice President JD Vance says the U.S. wants Iran to make a "meaningful" reduction in its uranium enrichment as part of any deal to end the war, a phrasing some analysts read as a step back from Washington's earlier demand that Tehran give up enrichment altogether. Whether that opens a path to an agreement is far from clear.
What Washington is saying
In an interview with Reuters, Vance argued that Iran can't credibly claim it doesn't want a nuclear weapon while producing highly enriched fuel. "If you don't want a nuclear weapon, then why do you need 60 percent enriched fuel?" he said, as quoted by Al Jazeera. The International Atomic Energy Agency has reported that Iran enriched uranium to 60%, short of the roughly 90% considered weapons-grade. Vance said the U.S. is in contact with Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian and Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi.
Other officials struck a harder tone. Secretary of State Marco Rubio, speaking in Athens, repeated that Iran cannot have a nuclear weapon and claimed the country has lost control of the Strait of Hormuz and that its economy is collapsing under sanctions. President Donald Trump has said the war will end one way or another.
What Tehran is saying
Pezeshkian called talks with Washington "futile" on Monday, accusing the U.S. of attacking Iran after previous rounds of negotiations, according to Iran's official IRNA news agency. Araghchi, speaking to foreign ambassadors on Oct. 4, struck a slightly different note, saying negotiations based on fairness could still end the conflict.
Iran put forward a proposal at the U.N. General Assembly in late September that Trump rejected. It would have halted fighting on all fronts, including Israel's offensive in Lebanon, with the U.S. lifting its naval blockade and oil sanctions and releasing frozen Iranian assets. The Strait of Hormuz would reopen after seven days, and nuclear talks would follow. The plan built on a June 17 memorandum between the two countries that briefly eased fighting before collapsing.
The real sticking points
Simon Mabon, an international relations professor at Lancaster University, told Al Jazeera that enrichment isn't Tehran's main concern. He said Iran wants sanctions lifted, the blockade ended and its assets unfrozen, or at least a road map to those steps, along with an end to fighting in Lebanon and a lasting ceasefire in the Gulf.
Shipping is recovering, but not safe
Gulf oil exports outside Iran reached more than 81% of pre-war levels in September, according to maritime data firm Kpler. Still, attacks continue: India's foreign ministry said 12 crew members on a Panama-flagged tanker were hurt Tuesday when an unknown projectile struck while the ship crossed the strait. Mabon suggested that lingering uncertainty about Hormuz may be one reason Washington's position appears to be softening.